East West Commercial Real Estate

Overall improvement in the private-sector job market and the tenuous single-family housing market will continue to prop up the southern California apartment sector through the year. Increased hiring in the professional and business services sector has supported stronger household formation growth. Gen Y will begin to move out of the nest as they become comfortable with the economic environment and feel secure with their job. This will contribute to household formation especially in the professional areas of Orange County, San Diego and Los Angeles. In Los Angeles, the number of households expanded 1.3 percent this last year, marking one of the highest rates since the late nineties. With single-family home prices on a steady decline since the fourth quarter of 2010, most of the new households will reside in multifamily properties. The growing trend to watch are the Baby Boomers beginning to shift toward retirement living from single family homes. This may bode well for some multi-family properties, but the majority of the growth will come in the senior living sector.

Low interest rates and strong buyer interest will motivate apartment owners to list assets in 2012, especially those who missed the strong run-up during the 2003-2007 period. This trend has already taken hold and there is a surge of 1031 exchange transactions occurring. Beach communities, as well as prime neighborhoods along the 405 and 5 corridors can offer investors returns anywhere in the high-4 to low-5 percent range. Value-add plays in more tertiary markets of the Inland Empire, north Orange County, portions of Los Angeles, and along the inland 78 corridor of San Diego and East County yield in the high-6 to low-7 percent area, depending on deferred maintenance. The hardest hit areas of the Inland Empire still maintain yields in the mid 7 to 9 percent range, due to the lingering unemployment rate and the single family housing inventory.

Operators will still find it difficult in some of the tertiary markets to fill units and raise rents above the rents of repositioned homes and the shadow inventory that still exists especially in portions of Inland Empire, Los Angeles county and north Orange County. Meanwhile, individuals who work in Los Angeles or Orange County are flocking to areas such as Corona, Ontario, Fontana, Chino and Corona in order to cut commutes but maintain affordable rents. The Riverside-San Bernardino market will continue to see increased activity as value-add investors and prudent buyers continue to snap up REO and distressed properties.

In San Diego the apartment market’s supply and demand ratio is leaning heavily toward the demand side of the equation, which is allowing owners to reduce concessions and raise rents. Effective rents will reach an all-time high in 2012 and the vacancy rate is still compressing toward 4-5% for well positioned properties in attractive markets and higher cap rates in the mid 6 to mid 7 percent range in East County and inland. These areas will attract new construction, so the risk is offset by higher yields. All in all, the investor pool exceeds the supply of for-sale properties, creating a competitive buying environment. More properties may come to market as investors see this as a good time to attract high prices for their properties.